YCD News — Adobe recently released its “Online Shopping Forecast for the 2023 Holiday Season” based on its Analytics data, which covers the November 1 to December 31, 2023 timeframe.
According to Adobe’s forecast, total U.S. online sales for the 2023 holiday shopping season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31) will reach $221.8 billion, a 4.8 percent year-over-year increase. for the 2022 holiday season, U.S. consumers spent $211.7 billion online, a 3.5 percent increase from the previous year.
Holiday Season Discounts Expected to Hit Record Highs
Adobe expects discounts during the holiday season to hit record highs of up to 35 percent of the selling price as retailers grapple with an uncertain consumer environment and consumers continue to deal with rising costs in areas such as food. Of the 18 product categories tracked by Adobe, toys, electronics and apparel are expected to offer the biggest discounts. Additionally, the deepest discounts are expected to occur during Cyber Week.
For the 2023 holiday season, discounts on toys are expected to reach 35% of list price (22% in 2022), electronics discounts will reach 30% (27%), and apparel discounts will reach 25% (19%). Other categories with significant discounts include sporting goods at 24% (17% in 2022), TVs at 22% (19%) and furniture and bedding at 19% (11%).
Cyber Monday sales set to break records
Cyber Week (the shopping holiday that includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $37.2 billion in online spending, up 5.4 percent year-over-year and accounting for 16.8 percent of the holiday season total, according to the data.
Adobe expects Cyber Monday to remain the biggest shopping day of the quarter and year, driving a record $12 billion in spending, up 6.1% year-over-year. Online sales on Black Friday will grow 5.7% year-over-year to $9.6 billion, and online sales on Thanksgiving Day will grow 5.5% year-over-year to $5.6 billion.
Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) is quite popular
Adobe expects Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) payments to set a new record this holiday season, driving $17 billion in online spending, up 16.9% year-over-year and $2.5 billion more than last year. Of that, BNPL spending will reach $9.3 billion in November, making it the highest month on record.
Cyber Monday will be the highest day for BNPL spending at $782 million, surpassing Cyber Monday 2022’s highest single-day record of $658 million. In addition, an Adobe survey of more than 1,000 U.S. consumers found that one in five respondents plan to use the BNPL to buy gifts this holiday season.
Patrick Brown, Adobe’s vice president of growth marketing, said e-commerce spending is expected to grow strongly this quarter due to record discounts and flexible payment options, despite an unpredictable economic environment and a number of challenges facing consumers, including rising interest rates. Now that BNPL has gone mainstream, it will make it easier for consumers to press the buy button.
Other important trends
Adobe expects that more than half (51.2%) of all online spending will take place on mobile devices this holiday season, with mobile spending reaching a record $113 billion, up 13.7% year-over-year, with mobile device usage peaking on days like Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Electronics, apparel, furniture/home furnishings, groceries and toys are expected to contribute $144.2 billion in spending during the 2023 holiday season, accounting for more than half of the overall consumer total ($221.8 billion).
Amazon Prime Big Deal Day promotions (Oct. 10-11) and other promotions are expected to drive early discounts. Of these, Prime Big Deal Days is expected to bring in $8.1 billion (up 6.1% year-over-year).